How do things look for the last House Republican in New England? Not so good. This may be why he's been leading his ads with an image of Obama -- even as his statement just a couple weeks ago that "the fundamentals of our economy are strong" show that he really stands with McCain and the Republicans on the issues.And as the collapsing financial markets show just how badly out of touch Shays' statement was, an internal poll from his challenger, Orange to Blue candidate Jim Himes show just how endangered Shays is.
The Feldman Group for Himes for Congress, 9/17-18, 500 sample (don't know MoE, sorry)
A tied race at this point bodes well for the challenger, especially with a strong Democratic presidential lead -- the same poll shows Obama leading McCain in the district, 56% to 33%. Himes still faces significant challenges, given the difficulty of advertising in a New York City media market, which is why every dollar counts.
- Shays 45
- Himes 45
But it's looking good for cleaning House in New England.
With Obama likely to pull in a lot of extra votes for Democratic party politicians everywhere... Things are looking good for the Himes campaign.
[update] Via Scarce at MLN:
The Himes campaign have released results for CT-04 by Democratic pollster The Feldman Group.The campaign's tracking poll, fielded September 17th and 18th, shows that Democratic challenger Jim Himes has pulled even with Republican Congressman Christopher Shays. Each candidate has 45 percent support. Additionally, their support is equally strong with 27 percent certain to support Himes and 28 percent certain to support Shays. An even contest six weeks before Election Day means that the contest now favors Himes.
Our last poll, shortly before the Democratic convention in August, showed Shays in the lead. In the interim, however, Democrats have moved decisively toward Himes to give him a 69 percent to 23 percent lead among registered Democrats. Additionally, independents, who remain a plurality in this district, now break almost evenly between the candidates, with 45 percent for Shays and 43 percent for Himes.
In a district notoriously difficult to communicate in due to the dominance of the New York City media market, familiarity with Himes has continued to climb. Now, 60 percent of voters say they are familiar with Himes, compared to 49 percent in August. Meanwhile, 36 percent of voters feel Chris Shays deserves re-election, while 46 percent believe someone else deserves a chance. Only 43 percent of voters believe he is doing a good job in Congress and only a third reject the description that he is too close to unpopular President George W. Bush while 44 percent believe that is at least partly true.