Even when there's not a pony in sight.
Guess what? Richard Blumenthal remains ahead of Linda McMahon! By about the same, comfortable but not Delaware-style oh-my-god-we-can't-possibly-pull-the-lever-for-the-crazy-lady-wide margin as he has enjoyed since the primary.
Before you start telling me that McMahon "closed the gap!" with some colorful wrestling expression, stop. Of course the race tightened after the primary. Richard Blumenthal, a well-respected long-serving attorney general against an unknown representative of a demoralized party still reeling from ass-handing defeats in 2006 and 2008, is a shoe-in. Richard Blumenthal running against an actual candidate, and one who both has a functioning intellect and cash to buy lots and lots of ads and mailers, is a bit tougher.
But it's not been the on-the-ropes chair-smashing slug-fest the media would have you believe.
Look at the chart. With the exception of one blip at the very end of September, the race has been steady-Freddy for the past two months.
Some CT voters (I'll go out on a limb here and call them "Republicans") prefer McMahon over a Democratic candidate. But, more CT voters (including a majority of independents) actually prefer the candidate they know over the candidate they don't know (who, despite all the junk mail and nasty swift-boating attempt, and really, really, really lame tv ad featuring 2 "housewives" in an SUV .... really doesn't seem to articulate much of a plan beyond "spending bad. tax breaks good.") Go figure.
One reason why?
Maybe his ideas are actually better.
Check this out:
Even shorter version:
Huh. Tax breaks on the wealthy don't create jobs.
Investing in infrastructure and education do.
I guess you can dress up old GOP ideas in a sparkly wrestling cape, but ... no one's going to mistake them for anything but a cheap distraction.
Now, just because Nate Silver thinks McMahon has about a 0.04% chance of (insert your own wrestling analogy for "win surprisingly" here), CT voters should not get complacent.
There are some closer races that will hinge on Democratic (or at least, the "Sweet Mike, not the GOP again!") voter turnout.
This isn't the Kentucky Derby (if it were, I'd be praying to Aqua Buddha. Just to hedge bets.)
But it's not a done deal.
Vote. vote. vote. vote. vote. vote. vote. vote.