Hadley on Pressing Forward to Failure - Pincus Propaganda

Hadley's response to the reporter's question:(paraphrased)

"I agree, I was spinning, so let me try and spin it completely another way: Please let the preznit continue to press on towards failure... It's our last-best chance to fail!"

Ok... Maybe you should watch the Video and get the real quotes...

"One of the things you should conclude from this NIE is the best plan is to have this plan succeed."

What plan? Stay the fuckin' course? Puhleeeese... That is all the ESCALATION/surge really is.

And of course in the WaPo, Pincus and DeYoung lie the BIG LIE:

In a discussion of whether Iraq has reached a state of civil war, the 90-page classified NIE comes to no conclusion and holds out prospects of improvement.

Let's take another look at the declassified version of the NIE to compare:

*The Intelligence Community judges that the term “civil war” does not adequately capture the complexity of the conflict in Iraq, which includes extensive Shia-on-Shia violence, al-Qa’ida and Sunni insurgent attacks on Coalition forces, and widespread criminally motivated violence. Nonetheless, the term “civil war” accurately describes key elements of the Iraqi conflict, including the hardening of ethno-sectarian identities, a sea change in the character of the violence, ethno-sectarian mobilization, and population displacements.

snip

*Nevertheless, even if violence is diminished, given the current winner-take-all attitude and sectarian animosities infecting the political scene, Iraqi leaders will be hard pressed to achieve sustained political reconciliation in the time frame of this Estimate.

Yeah... I think the NIE says Pincus is lying. I gave up reading the Pincus propaganda after I got to his second graph lie. It's like reading the thoughts of Bush, Lieberman or St. McCain. There is no point to it since they are all insane or liars or both.

The Rovian spin machine is cranking it up a notch.... We had better be ready to fight back.

[update] Billy-Willy Kristol seeps up from the Daily Muck:

When decadent neoconservatives lose political battles over the war, the results aren't pretty. The byline here reads Bill Kristol, but the words could very well have come from Shakespeare's Richard III (like, say, Act V, Scene IV):

John Warner of Virginia, Gordon Smith of Oregon, and Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe of Maine are the four Republican senators (in addition to Nebraska's Chuck Hagel) currently signed on to the Democrats' anti-surge, anti-Petraeus, anti-troops, and anti-victory resolution.

That's right: a nonbinding anti-surge resolution is an act against the troops.

Oh, and there's more. Kristol threatens dire political consequences to all anti-surge GOP senators...

It is another full-court press from all of the usual ass-kissing Bush hacks...

Iraq NIE

Below are the Key Judgements of the NIE (at least the declasified version taken from the PDF that was released) and it is obvious that it does not paint a pretty picture. Of note is that while it mentions the influence of Iran, they also make it clear that Iran's influence is the negligible when you look at the overall picture of chaos.

I am including the "Explanation of Estimative Language" at the bottom of this so that you can get a clearer picture of what they mean to say with their specific choice of wording. Also, all emphasis and formatting is NOT mine, and is included as originally in the report.

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Key Judgments

Iraqi society’s growing polarization, the persistent weakness of the security forces and the state in general, and all sides’ ready recourse to violence are collectively driving an increase in communal and insurgent violence and political extremism. Unless efforts to reverse these conditions show measurable progress during the term of this Estimate, the coming 12 to 18 months, we assess that the overall security situation will continue to deteriorate at rates comparable to the latter part of 2006. If strengthened Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), more loyal to the government and supported by Coalition forces, are able to reduce levels of violence and establish more effective security for Iraq’s population, Iraqi leaders could have an opportunity to begin the process of political compromise necessary for longer term stability, political progress, and economic recovery.

• Nevertheless, even if violence is diminished, given the current winner-take-all attitude and sectarian animosities infecting the political scene, Iraqi leaders will be hard pressed to achieve sustained political reconciliation in the time frame of this Estimate.

The challenges confronting Iraqis are daunting, and multiple factors are driving the current trajectory of the country’s security and political evolution.

• Decades of subordination to Sunni political, social, and economic domination have made the Shia deeply insecure about their hold on power. This insecurity leads the Shia to mistrust US efforts to reconcile Iraqi sects and reinforces their unwillingness to engage with the Sunnis on a variety of issues, including adjusting the structure of Iraq’s federal system, reining in Shia militias, and easing de-Bathification.

• Many Sunni Arabs remain unwilling to accept their minority status, believe the central government is illegitimate and incompetent, and are convinced that Shia dominance will increase Iranian influence over Iraq, in ways that erode the state’s Arab character and increase Sunni repression.

• The absence of unifying leaders among the Arab Sunni or Shia with the capacity to speak for or exert control over their confessional groups limits prospects for reconciliation. The Kurds remain willing to participate in Iraqi state building but reluctant to surrender any of the gains in autonomy they have achieved.

• The Kurds are moving systematically to increase their control of Kirkuk to guarantee annexation of all or most of the city and province into the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) after the constitutionally mandated referendum scheduled to occur no later than 31 December 2007. Arab groups in Kirkuk continue to resist violently what they see as Kurdish encroachment.

• Despite real improvements, the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF)—particularly the Iraqi police—will be hard pressed in the next 12-18 months to execute significantly increased security responsibilities, and particularly to operate independently against Shia militias with success. Sectarian divisions erode the dependability of many units, many are hampered by personnel and equipment shortfalls, and a number of Iraqi units have refused to serve outside of the areas where they were recruited.

• Extremists—most notably the Sunni jihadist group al-Qa’ida in Iraq (AQI) and Shia oppositionist Jaysh al-Mahdi (JAM)—continue to act as very effective accelerators for what has become a self-sustaining inter-sectarian struggle between Shia and Sunnis.

• Significant population displacement, both within Iraq and the movement of Iraqis into neighboring countries, indicates the hardening of ethno-sectarian divisions, diminishes Iraq’s professional and entrepreneurial classes, and strains the capacities of the countries to which they have relocated. The UN estimates over a million Iraqis are now in Syria and Jordan.

The Intelligence Community judges that the term “civil war” does not adequately capture the complexity of the conflict in Iraq, which includes extensive Shia-on-Shia violence, al-Qa’ida and Sunni insurgent attacks on Coalition forces, and widespread criminally motivated violence. Nonetheless, the term “civil war” accurately describes key elements of the Iraqi conflict, including the hardening of ethno-sectarian identities, a sea change in the character of the violence, ethno-sectarian mobilization, and population displacements.

Coalition capabilities, including force levels, resources, and operations, remain an essential stabilizing element in Iraq. If Coalition forces were withdrawn rapidly during the term of this Estimate, we judge that this almost certainly would lead to a significant increase in the scale and scope of sectarian conflict in Iraq, intensify Sunni resistance to the Iraqi Government, and have adverse consequences for national reconciliation.

• If such a rapid withdrawal were to take place, we judge that the ISF would be unlikely to survive as a non-sectarian national institution; neighboring countries—invited by Iraqi factions or unilaterally—might intervene openly in the conflict; massive civilian casualties and forced population displacement would be probable; AQI would attempt to use parts of the country—particularly al-Anbar province—to plan increased attacks in and outside of Iraq; and spiraling violence and political disarray in Iraq, along with Kurdish moves to control Kirkuk and strengthen autonomy, could prompt Turkey to launch a military incursion.

A number of identifiable developments could help to reverse the negative trends driving Iraq’s current trajectory. They include:

• Broader Sunni acceptance of the current political structure and federalism to begin to reduce one of the major sources of Iraq’s instability.

• Significant concessions by Shia and Kurds to create space for Sunni acceptance of federalism.

• A bottom-up approach—deputizing, resourcing, and working more directly with neighborhood watch groups and establishing grievance committees—to help mend frayed relationships between tribal and religious groups, which have been mobilized into communal warfare over the past three years.

A key enabler for all of these steps would be stronger Iraqi leadership, which could enhance the positive impact of all the above developments.

Iraq’s neighbors influence, and are influenced by, events within Iraq, but the involvement of these outside actors is not likely to be a major driver of violence or the prospects for stability because of the self-sustaining character of Iraq’s internal sectarian dynamics. Nonetheless, Iranian lethal support for select groups of Iraqi Shia militants clearly intensifies the conflict in Iraq. Syria continues to provide safehaven for expatriate Iraqi Bathists and to take less than adequate measures to stop the flow of foreign jihadists into Iraq.

• For key Sunni regimes, intense communal warfare, Shia gains in Iraq, and Iran’s assertive role have heightened fears of regional instability and unrest and contributed to a growing polarization between Iran and Syria on the one hand and other Middle East governments on the other. But traditional regional rivalries, deepening ethnic and sectarian violence in Iraq over the past year, persistent anti-Americanism in the region, anti-Shia prejudice among Arab states, and fears of being perceived by their publics as abandoning their Sunni co-religionists in Iraq have constrained Arab states’ willingness to engage politically and economically with the Shia-dominated government in Baghdad and led them to consider unilateral support to Sunni groups.

• Turkey does not want Iraq to disintegrate and is determined to eliminate the safehaven in northern Iraq of the Kurdistan People’s Congress (KGK, formerly PKK)—a Turkish Kurdish terrorist group.

A number of identifiable internal security and political triggering events, including sustained mass sectarian killings, assassination of major religious and political leaders, and a complete Sunni defection from the government have the potential to convulse severely Iraq’s security environment. Should these events take place, they could spark an abrupt increase in communal and insurgent violence and shift Iraq’s trajectory from gradual decline to rapid deterioration with grave humanitarian, political, and security consequences. Three prospective security paths might then emerge:

• Chaos Leading to Partition. With a rapid deterioration in the capacity of Iraq’s central government to function, security services and other aspects of sovereignty would collapse. Resulting widespread fighting could produce de facto partition, dividing Iraq into three mutually antagonistic parts. Collapse of this magnitude would generate fierce violence for at least several years, ranging well beyond the time frame of this Estimate, before settling into a partially stable end-state.

• Emergence of a Shia Strongman. Instead of a disintegrating central government producing partition, a security implosion could lead Iraq’s potentially most powerful group, the Shia, to assert its latent strength.

• Anarchic Fragmentation of Power. The emergence of a checkered pattern of local control would present the greatest potential for instability, mixing extreme ethno-sectarian violence with debilitating intra-group clashes.

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What We Mean When We Say:
An Explanation of Estimative Language

When we use words such as “we judge” or “we assess”—terms we use synonymously—as well as “we estimate,” “likely” or “indicate,” we are trying to convey an analytical assessment or judgment. These assessments, which are based on incomplete or at times fragmentary information are not a fact, proof, or knowledge. Some analytical judgments are based directly on collected information; others rest on previous judgments, which serve as building blocks. In either type of judgment, we do not have “evidence” that shows something to be a fact or that definitively links two items or issues.

Intelligence judgments pertaining to likelihood are intended to reflect the Community’s sense of the probability of a development or event. Assigning precise numerical ratings to such judgments would imply more rigor than we intend. The chart below provides a rough idea of the relationship of terms to each other.



We do not intend the term “unlikely” to imply an event will not happen. We use “probably” and “likely” to indicate there is a greater than even chance. We use words such as “we cannot dismiss,” “we cannot rule out,” and “we cannot discount” to reflect an unlikely—or even remote—event whose consequences are such it warrants mentioning. Words such as “may be” and “suggest” are used to reflect situations in which we are unable to assess the likelihood generally because relevant information is nonexistent, sketchy, or fragmented.

In addition to using words within a judgment to convey degrees of likelihood, we also ascribe “high,” “moderate,” or “low” confidence levels based on the scope and quality of information supporting our judgments.

• “High confidence” generally indicates our judgments are based on high-quality information and/or the nature of the issue makes it possible to render a solid judgment.

• “Moderate confidence” generally means the information is interpreted in various ways, we have alternative views, or the information is credible and plausible but not corroborated sufficiently to warrant a higher level of confidence.

• “Low confidence” generally means the information is scant, questionable, or very fragmented and it is difficult to make solid analytic inferences, or we have significant concerns or problems with the sources.

A Moment of Clarity

A moment of clarity, if you are one of those Bush-Lieberman-McCain clones that refuse to accept the reality of the situation, from former National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski's prepared testimony for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

“The war in Iraq is a historic, strategic, and moral calamity.”

“If the United States continues to be bogged down in a protracted bloody involvement in Iraq,” Brzezinski cautioned, “the final destination on this downhill track is likely to be a head-on conflict with Iran and with much of the world of Islam at large. … It is obvious by now that the American national interest calls for a significant change of direction.”

Ya don't say? Anyone that supports the axis of weasels' (Bush, Lieberman, McCain, AEI) continuence of failed policy in Iraq is playing right into the terrorists' hands... These idiots need to be removed from office and/or prosecuted for their criminal negligence.

Lincoln Group - Funding the Insurgents?

Ok... Who or what, exactly, are "Sunni Religious Scholars":

Lincoln Group - SourceWatch:
"Hiring Sunni Religious Scholars, Working with AEI's Michael Rubin

The New York Times reported January 2, 2006, that the Lincoln Group 'has been compensating Sunni religious scholars in Iraq in return for assistance with its propaganda works ... [T]he company's ties to religious leaders and dozens of other prominent Iraqis is aimed also at enabling it to exercise influence in Iraqi communities on behalf of clients, including the military. ... Lincoln has also turned to American scholars and political consultants for advice on the content of the propaganda campaign in Iraq, records indicate. Michael Rubin, a Middle East scholar at the American Enterprise Institute ... said he had reviewed materials produced by the company.' [24] Rubin was political adviser for the Coalition Provisional Authority (Baghdad), 2003-2004, following two years (2002-2004) as staff assistant on Iran and Iraq in the Office of Special Plans in the Office of the Secretary of Defense."

Can you read "Fundementalist Clerics"... And why the fuck would the Lincoln propoganda team have been funding these "Sunni Religious Scholars" (a plan supported by AEI) when many of these "Scholars" are the ones that are the most responsible for all of the exploding Iraqis everywhere?

Are they trying to feed the fire and tilt Iraq further into the chaos of Civil War? Just WTF kindof crack are these assholes smoking?

Sell propaganda to the US government to help spread peace in Iraq... Meanwhile fund the insurgents that help create more chaos there.... Sell more propaganda to the US government to help spread peace in Iraq... Meanwhile fund the insurgents that help create more chaos there...

Rinse and repeat.
Rinse and repeat.
Rinse and repeat.
Rinse and repeat.
Rinse and repeat.

Without heroes like the Lincoln group the Shia wouldn't have such a well funded insurgency to to attempt to ethnically cleanse.

And, right now, Mr. Bush and his insane clown posse is trying to spin to you that it is Iran that is supporting much of the chaos?

But even our feeble knowledge here at TPM is enough to tell us that when we start hearing catch-alls like 'Iranian-trained' for anything that happened in southern Iraq, we're dealing with meaninglessly vague words meant to bamboozle and hoodwink. Remember too this incident occurred in Karbala, where the Badr Brigade is headquartered.

To be clear, I'm not saying the Badr Brigade was behind this, only that in the context of paramilitaries in southern Iraq, 'Iranian-trained' is a meaninglessly broad category.

Really? Spin, Spin, Spin! What a fuckin' racket...

WAR is a racket. It always has been.

It is possibly the oldest, easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious. It is the only one international in scope. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives.

A racket is best described, I believe, as something that is not what it seems to the majority of the people. Only a small "inside" group knows what it is about. It is conducted for the benefit of the very few, at the expense of the very many. Out of war a few people make huge fortunes.

I smell an early House election campaign in California

Hypocrisy in action in CA-42:

Gary Miller (not to be confused with George Miller, D, CA-7) was first elected to the House in 1998. In 2006, he ran for election unopposed. His growing seniority has garnered him an appointment as Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Investigations on the House Financial Services Committee. (And under investigation as a tax cheat! Yikes!!)

snip

LUCRATIVE LAND DEAL
Dennis Hastert cleared a cool million for land he sold for a highway development he slipped into an earmark. And the Pombo family in California apparently benefitted from a similar highway related deal. So this kind of thing is not unheard of. But Miller’s real estate windfall was an order of magnitude greater than Hastert’s. A cool ten million! CREW filed a IRS complaint against the Congressman last summer:

In 2002, Rep. Miller sold 165 acres to the city of Monrovia, California, making a profit of approximately $10 million. In 2004, Rep. Miller reinvested the proceeds of the sale in land and building purchases in Fontana, California, and Rancho Cucamonga, California. Rep. Miller again claimed IRC 1033 exemption when he sold some of his Fontana land and building acquisitions in April and June of 2005. He used proceeds from this sale to purchase additional land in Fontana, which he subsequently sold to the city in 2006 for $50,000 more than his original purchase price.

So, ten million profit in a land deal. And federal earmarks for improvements that increased the property value. This has been business-as-usual for entirely too many Republicans in Tom Delay's short-lived "Permanenet Majority." Sigh.

The Democratic party out west might want to start think about lining up a candidate for this one ASAP... Whether Miller manages to hang around until 2008 or not, the campaign is on. The sooner there is a candidate to oppose him the better. Get that "name/face recognition" spinning in the media now.

As a side note: I may not write much the next couple of days... I am trying to do a bit of research to help out ePluribusMedia and it involves WAY TOO MUCH reading! lol

One possible source of Krayeske's illegal treatment

I am not saying that this is how Ken Krayeske ended up on "THE LIST" but it is definately a possibility.

FBI turns to broad new wiretap method:
"The FBI appears to have adopted an invasive Internet surveillance technique that collects far more data on innocent Americans than previously has been disclosed.

Instead of recording only what a particular suspect is doing, agents conducting investigations appear to be assembling the activities of thousands of Internet users at a time into massive databases, according to current and former officials. That database can subsequently be queried for names, e-mail addresses or keywords.

Such a technique is broader and potentially more intrusive than the FBI's Carnivore surveillance system, later renamed DCS1000. It raises concerns similar to those stirred by widespread Internet monitoring that the National Security Agency is said to have done, according to documents that have surfaced in one federal lawsuit, and may stretch the bounds of what's legally permissible."

For those of you that are unfamiliar with Carnivore:

Carnivore Redux:
In late 1999, Corn-Revere, a partner at the Davis Wright Tremaine law firm, had been fighting on EarthLink's behalf to keep a government surveillance device off the company's network. A short while later, though, a federal magistrate judge sided with the FBI against the Atlanta-based Internet provider.

Worried about the privacy impact, Corn-Revere revealed the existence of Carnivore in testimony before a House of Representatives subcommittee on April 6, 2000. "They were using a technology called Etherpeek, which was off the shelf," Corn-Revere told me last Friday. "When we challenged it, they said, 'We're not using that. That would be wrong. We have our own software developed. It's called Carnivore.'" (Etherpeek is a Windows surveillance utility from WildPackets that can decode protocols used with e-mail, Web browsing and instant messaging.)

Now history is repeating itself. A flurry of press reports this month noted that the FBI has ceased using Carnivore, which had been renamed DCS1000. But not all of them mentioned that the government is hardly calling a halt to Internet wiretaps--instead, it's simply buying its surveillance tools from private companies again.

A review of the government's self-reported wiretap statistics from 2000 to 2003, the most recent data available, shows that the total number of "electronic" wiretaps has stayed between 4 percent and 8 percent of all reported wiretaps each year. (In 2003, for instance, there were 1,442 reported non-terrorism wiretaps in total that intercepted 4.3 million communications or conversations.)

snip

...those numbers don't include "pen register" and "trap and trace" devices, which tend to be about five to six times as popular as traditional wiretaps. Those awkward names, which hail from the days of analog phone taps, refer to capturing only the addresses of Web sites visited and the IDs of e-mail and instant-messaging correspondents rather than the complete content of the communication.

Translated: The concept of Carnivore isn't going away. If anything, police surveillance of the Internet is increasing over time.

There is a possibility that this sort of software is what may have brought Krayeske to the FBI and CTIC's attention since it would track and find sources of comments on Blogs. IMHO it is highly likely.

If this sort of illegal surveillance is what brought Krayeske to their attention, it still would not explain the human error of actually taking anything Krayeske has said, written, or done in the past as a sign that he should be on "The List"... Anyone that actually read the full comments refered to as reasons for the abuse of his rights would see that he is just a photo-journalist/blogger/peaceful political activist.

Are there any CT politicians that could ask for the original source of these Federal agencies monitoring Ken Krayeke? My guess is that question will lead back to software controlled "wiretaps" that are inherrantly illegal because of the wide net they cast in surveillance of the internet without any probable cause.

Given the subject matter of this diary... They are probably reading this! What a fuckin' waste of taxpayers' money.

You are what you eat?

Is this a case of "you are what you eat" or was the author making a political statement after the fact?



The book was written by the White House pastry chef. The author wrote the book before being hired to work at the White House so they must have hired the chef based on his ability to cater to the current White House occupants' needs...

Revolution in DC - Out of Iraq

out of Iraq and into
PEACE!